What’s behind the alarming rise in California’s Covid-19 cases

 Since the Thanksgiving holiday, California has faced a surge of Covid-19 infections unparalleled across the United States, leading to continued daily record highs in hospitalizations and deaths.

ICU bed capacity has plunged to nearly zero in vast portions of the state as patients rush into hospitals, which are struggling to manage strains on resources and personnel.

“We’re experiencing an explosive and very deadly surge,” Los Angeles County Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer said.

State and local officials are continuing to enact lockdown and quarantine protocols for residents and visitors, even as the Pfizer vaccine rollout has provided some long-term hope. While it may be too early to tell due to the virus’ long incubation time, aggressive stay-at-home measures put forth throughout California two weeks ago have yet to slow the spread.

As the nation’s most populous state and home to approximately 1 in 9 Americans, California would understandably lead in a category such as total cases in a pandemic felt nationwide. However, it is the sheer volume of sick residents and the rate of increase that is particularly driving alarm.

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On November 1, the seven-day average for new daily cases in California was 4,183. On Thursday, it was 38,774.

Multiple factors are at play when it comes to California’s sudden acceleration of coronavirus cases, including Covid-19 fatigue, resistance to stay-at-home regulations, the huge number of essential workers and the socioeconomic factors of the pandemic affecting poorer and minority households.

More than 22,000 Californians have died

The California Department of Public Health announced 379 Covid-19 deaths on Thursday, the state’s highest one-day total yet, shattering the prior record of 293 lives lost announced on Wednesday. Friday’s numbers also cleared the earlier record, with 300 deaths reported. More than 22,000 Californians have died from Covid-19.

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California’s overall case number is more than 1.7 million, with 52,281 new cases added Thursday. More than 41,000 new cases were announced Friday, as officials noted some were from earlier and had yet been reported.

The daily increase of more than 50,000 cases is staggering for the state, particularly when compared to other outbreaks around the world. According to Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Covid-19 data, California’s daily average of new cases outpaces Canada, Spain and Argentina, all nations with similar populations.

Even more populated countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom have not approached the same level of new infections as California, let alone the entire United States.

The forecast for the California health care system’s response to Covid-19 is worsening. More than 16,000 people on Friday were in hospitals, with at least 3,000 patients in intensive care, and more are expected in the coming days and weeks during the holiday season. Fewer than 1,300 ICU beds in the state remained available Thursday.

“LA County is moving toward becoming the epicenter of the pandemic,” Dr. Brad Spellberg, chief medical officer at LAC + USC Medical Center, warned in a media briefing Friday.

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“We’re getting crushed,” Spellberg said about the county’s hospitals. “I’m not going to sugarcoat this. We are getting crushed.”

Hospitalizations in Los Angeles County have doubled since the start of December, according to officials, who have pushed to discharge patients and continue care at home to handle the influx of arrivals.

Santa Clara County, part of the Bay Area, had only 15 ICU beds remaining of the 317 available as of Wednesday.

In preparation for the fallout of additional thousands dying from Covid-19, California activated its “mass fatality” program Tuesday to better coordinate assistance between state and local agencies. An additional 5,000 body bags were purchased, and 60 refrigerated storage units will be used throughout the state for emergency overflow for coroners and morgues.

‘This virus uses our humanity against us’

The arrival of the holiday season led to concern among health officials that families lulled into a false sense of security may gather in large groups over Thanksgiving, sparking infections in multiple households.

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The surge may have proven their worries correct.

California, which in months prior did not face the same rate of increase as other parts of the country, accelerated in December to near the top of the list of states per capita with new daily infections, according to JHU data.

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Yet the spike cannot be attributed to Thanksgiving alone. California cases were already beginning to rise earlier in November. State officials at the time directly tied it to Covid-19 fatigue, with more instances of private, indoor gatherings that can expose individuals to greater risk of infection.

“Unfortunately, the stories I hear from the patients, it’s all been the same story. People are just having Covid fatigue,” Dr. Thomas Yadegar, the ICU director at Providence Cedars-Sinai Tarzana Medical Center, told CNN’s Paul Vercammen in an interview Friday.

Yadegar explains that his patients often described practicing social distancing and being mindful until Thanksgiving arrived, even going as far as checking symptoms and testing before meeting family.

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